Once there was a teacher and his two disciples.
After spending months learning from the teacher, one morning the disciples approached him.
“Teacher, are we ready?” asked the disciples.
“No,” replied the teacher.
They again approached him a few days later.
“Teacher, when will our time come? Are we ready?”
“Not yet,” said the teacher.
This went on for another year or so. The disciples would ask the same question time and again but the teacher always told them that they weren’t ready.
The disciples grew frustrated and rebelled one day.
They said, “Teacher, we have been learning for so long. Surely we must be ready by now. We are going.”
The teacher remained silent. The disciples left and went their own separate ways.
After a few years, one of the disciples did very well but the other died.
The surviving disciple visited the teacher. “You always told me that I was not ready and now look, what all I have achieved.”
The teacher said, “Oh, I wasn’t stopping you. I wanted to see how driven you were.”
Just then the ghost of the dead disciple appeared. “But why did I die?”
The teacher said, “I told you that you were not ready, didn’t I?”
The probability of the teacher being right is always 100% while that of a disciple is 50%.